Despite (or perhaps because of) its diminutive size and relatively isolated location. Botswana has long been held up as an exemplar of a successful African nation state. Since gaining independence in 1966 Botswana has enjoyed near unprecedented levels of political stability, sound fiscal management and steady economic growth. It is ranked as the best credit risk in Africa and was rated as the least corrupt African country by Transparency International. On the surface Botswana’s economic credentials look equally impresive. The country has the highest GDP per capita in SADC and has enjoyed steady rates of economic growth – which are expected to exceed a respectable 5% in 2019. Of course, as with most things, the story starts to become more complicated when you scratch beneath the surface.

Botswana’s long-term political and economic stability is largely thanks to its impressive diamond wealth and the shrewd management of revenues from this industry. But this strength may also prove to be the country’s greatest weakness. Yes, Botswana has fared better than other nations in the management its resource wealth but it is not immune to the challenges and structural weaknesses that define a heavily resource-dependent economy.

Global price fluctuations have dragged down Botswana’s economic growth figures in recent years and made the government increasingly aware of the threats posed by an over reliance on the global diamond trade. Diamonds are, after all, intrinsically almost worthless – their value merely the product of a clever De Beers marketing campaign early last century.

While Botswana’s natural wealth has served it well thus far, the medium term outlook shows many looming threats stemming from the resultant national complacency. Botswana’s economy is dangerously under-diversified which not only makes it heavily susceptible to external market shocks, but has also seen it develop an unsustainably top-heavy social system, where economic rewards remain concentrated in the hands of a small socio-economic elite.

Despite a GDP per capita of $7 600 – significantly higher than that of neighbouring South Africa -Botswana remains one of the top three most unequal countries in the world. Botswana has also struggled to deal with unemployment, which has officially stood at around 20% since 1991 (although is far higher in reality). Youth unemployment is particularly worrisome, with some 45% of young people unable to find work. Despite relatively high social spending rates Botswana continues to have poor educational outcomes. This situation is only exacerbated by the lack of economic opportunities available to young people once they do graduate – another burden created by their resource-dependent economy.

Of course Botswana has a lot going for it; a well-managed public administration system, investment-friendly laws, a business-friendly environment, a good credit rating (should the country need to borrow in order to bridge resource demand shortfalls or pursue large public projects). But if the country fails to diversify its economy and introduce mechanisms for broader economic participation it will fall a victim of its own success. Already UNICEF has warned that Botswana must not fall victim to the “middle income country” trap that has ensnared most countries in Southern Africa, where once a country achieves a certain per capita income growth starts to slow and economic productive capacity starts to stagnate. Already, for the first time since independence, the ruling BDP (Botswana Democratic Party) failed to secure more than 50% of the popular vote as voters start to question whether the only ruling party that they have ever known is still capable of leading Botswana into the future.